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Waiting for Chinese foreign trade statistics - 12.10.2015

On Friday the US markets continued the trend of the last two weeks. The stocks were on the increase with the US dollar index live data showing the further decline and reaching the 3-week low. Investors dispute that the Fed rate hike will happen this year which pulls the dollar down. They anticipate the positive statistics from the US corporate sector in the third quarter despite the relatively week data from Alcoa. Its stocks lost 6.8% on the release of the quarterly statistics. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 historical prices show the growth of 3.3% last week was the highest this year. On Friday the trade volume on the US stock exchanges was 10% lower than the average for 20 latest sessions and totaled 6.77bn shares. Today no important macroeconomic data is expected from the US. The bond and interbank markets are closed due to the Columbus Day. The stock market will operate but several commodities exchanges are closed. This week the reports from five major US banks are to be released: Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase и Bank of American. That may have a significant influence on the stock indices.

market-overview-us-dollar-index-chart

The European stock indices mainly continue growing today. The German energy companies RWE and E.ON stocks sky-rocketed by more than 10% after the statement from the German Minister of economic affairs that they have enough reserves to leave the nuclear projects. The British FTSE 100 index is correcting down after the record high weekly increase of 4.7% since 2011. The major banks have mixed views on the future EUR/USD live chart dynamics. HSBC expects it to strengthen to $1,18 in the coming months. JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believe the rate will fluctuate near the current levels. Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs see the euro weakening to the parity against the US dollar. As a reminder, on Friday the ECB President Mario Draghi said they were ready to extend the current QE programme by 1trn euros if required to stabilize the exchange rate. Today no important macroeconomic data is expected from the EU.

The Nikkei index increased a bit less than the other stock indices due to the weak report from Fast Retailing retail company. Its stocks slumped by almost 10% entailing the whole sector. Today in Japan there is a state holiday – Health and Sports Day. Early tomorrow the September consumer confidence index and the factory orders will be released.

On Tuesday morning at 1:50 CET the foreign trade data for September will be released in China which can hugely influence the commodities futures market.

market-overview-gold-chart

Amid the weaker dollar, the gold prices have reached the 7-week high. Investors believe the rate hike by the Fed will take place only next year. The additional positive factor for gold is the miners strike in South Africa. Note, that the volume of long positions with gold and silver at COMEX has reached a 4-month high last week.

brent-oil-chart

The oil live chart indicates the oil price is growing today. The Oil Minister of Kuwait said it would be harder to find the balance between the demand and supply as low prices pushed the high-cost producers out of the market while the global economic growth is on track causing the increasing demand for oil. He added that he did not expect the oil production volumes to change during the next technical meeting of OPEC on 21 October. The next meeting it to be held on December 4. Meanwhile, the number of active oil rigs in US contracted last week for the 6th week in a row totaling 605. This is far less than the last year’s high of 1609 rigs. The Goldman Sachs banks forecasts the US oil production to contract in the second half of 2015 by 255 thousand barrels a day compared to 9.3mln barrels a day in June.

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